Weekly Update – 2/27/2015

 Macro Commentary


Not much to talk about. Janet Yellen spoke in front of Congress this week but did not say much that the market was not already expecting. The Fed will be “patient” she says. Of course they will. As we have noted in past weekly write ups, the Fed must be careful. At this point in the economic maturity of the cycle, the Fed wants to get some “normalization” of their policy so when the economy should dip next they can use more traditional tools then what was required last time. But they cannot risk moving too quickly.¬† Or too much. Slow and steady wins this race. The Fed will act to raise short term rates this year but it will be later and less. The financial markets are still likely to swoon; years of zero interest rates cause even the slightest positive risk free rate to seem a high hurdle. If so, we see it as a longer term opportunity as the resilience of the US economy has shown itself time and again.