Macro Commentary
It’s been a long time coming, but the NASDAQ 100 finally grinded to a new high following the last one made in 2000. This story is another testament to the importance of valuation and buying an asset at the right price. The index has spent the past 15 years working off a P/E multiple from eye-popping levels (numbers vary based upon the type and source of the data, but well in excess of 100) to around 20x today. Granted, an investor did not earn absolutely zero over these past 15 years. Instead, they earned about 16%…CUMULATIVELY. So therein lies another valuable lesson on the role of dividends in delivering returns even when asset prices do not behave as you would like. When you put the two together, buy an asset that pays a good dividend at a good price, it can be a much better equation for the next 15 years. In general, we continue to like technology stocks for this reason. With relatively low leverage balance sheets, good top-line growth potential, and low payout ratios, the sector on the whole still has room to deliver solid returns. It seems we say this a lot, but selectivity is still important. As valuation on the whole has declined, there remain pockets where expectations (and thus price) exceed reality.